The Strait of Hormuz crisis intensifies as Iran maintains its demands: withdrawal of US forces and lifting of sanctions in exchange for reopening this strategic waterway. The United States apparently fired on a cargo ship, illustrating its military coercion strategy. Markets estimate only a 13.5% probability of an agreement before the August 15 deadline, making diplomatic resolution prospects increasingly bleak. The next developments will depend on statements from President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
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