Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced on July 23 that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) lacks sufficient votes to pass before the August recess. Just nine days earlier, Thune had committed to holding a pre-recess vote. The bill, which aims to clarify digital asset regulation between the SEC and the CFTC, passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support. Obstacles remain: Senate Democrats rejected Republican ethics provisions and disagreements persist over stablecoin regulation. On Polymarket, the probability of passage in 2026 has dropped to around 30-33%, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressing optimism about eventual passage.
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