Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized a vessel and a second ship was hit by an unknown projectile east of Khasab, Oman, according to reports. These incidents are part of rising maritime tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global oil shipments. The market now prices at 5.5% the probability that Iranian islands will no longer be under Tehran’s control by the end of September, compared to 2.1% for the end of August. This reflects growing concerns over foreign intervention or loss of control by Iranian authorities. The United States and regional allies are closely monitoring the situation as the risk of escalation persists in the region.
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