The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a sharper decline in global oil inventories this quarter, despite reduced demand from the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Global oil production is expected to remain below previous estimates, compounded by emergency reserve depletion and slow inventory replenishment. The market is reacting to these developments, which may indicate potential price increases as supply constraints intensify. The probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high is priced at 3.8% by September 30 and 12.5% by December 31. Geopolitical tensions and OPEC production decisions remain key factors for future market movements.
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