The International Energy Agency has revised its 2026 global oil demand forecast downward, predicting a decline of 1.6 million barrels per day, representing a 510,000-barrel reduction from its July estimate. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil and LNG flows, has already removed approximately 11 million barrels per day of crude and condensate production from the market. This revision reflects growing concerns over the prolonged impact of geopolitical tensions in the region. Prediction markets echo this cautious outlook, with only a 3.8% probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 and 12.5% by December 31.
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