The spread between U.S. COMEX copper futures and London Metal Exchange prices has become an indicator of U.S. tariff expectations. Copper hit a record high of nearly $6.90 per pound last week, with U.S. imports exceeding 200,000 metric tons in July, the highest level in twelve years. The Commerce Department has recommended phased tariffs of 15% starting January 1, 2027, rising to 30% on January 1, 2028 on refined copper. According to Société Générale analysts, the current COMEX premium implies a 14.6% probability of the 15% tariff and 37% for the 30% tariff, as the overdue Section 232 decision on copper is now considered the single biggest catalyst for the copper market.
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