The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has once again disrupted Europe’s oil market, reversing the temporary relief seen after a recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Brent crude prices have risen back to $92.27 per barrel following a 4.66% drop during the ceasefire period. The market continues to carry a significant geopolitical risk premium, with participants concerned about potential further escalation in this vital shipping route that handles a significant portion of global oil and LNG supplies. Market data indicates that operators anticipate a minimal likelihood of WTI crude reaching $130 in July 2026, with current pricing at only 0.6%.
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