Grayscale believes Bitcoin may have already reached its bottom, challenging the traditional four-year cycle model. According to the firm, the cryptocurrency has matured and is now increasingly driven by macroeconomic forces such as real interest rates and US Federal Reserve policy. If the Fed refrains from further rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, BTC’s price may have already hit its low. Several other analysts support this early bottom thesis, believing Bitcoin is more likely to form higher lows rather than make significant new lows, although some on-chain metrics still allow for a decline toward the $40,000 to $50,000 range.
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