Gold prices have retreated toward $4,300 after reaching a two-month high of $4,449 and an intraday peak of $4,500, as traders recalibrate their expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The precious metal remains approximately 23% below its January 2026 record near $5,600, despite climbing roughly 25% over the trailing twelve months. The market-implied probability of a September rate hike now stands at about 34%, down from roughly 55% earlier, with traders caught between weak economic data and a Fed that has not formally ruled out further tightening. Central bank demand continues to provide structural support for prices, as sovereign buyers accumulate gold reserves driven by de-dollarization trends.
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