China’s Commerce Ministry announced on July 27 that the United States committed to capping replacement tariffs on Chinese goods at 20%, up from the current 12.5% rate. This marks the first public confirmation of a specific ceiling in the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations. The announcement follows the November 2025 trade arrangement that reduced certain duties to 10% and extended suspensions until November 2026, along with the May 2026 summit that established a joint trade council with a $30 billion tariff rollback mechanism, and the US Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling invalidating certain tariffs under IEEPA. Digital asset markets experienced significant volatility in late 2025, with tariff-related developments triggering over $18 billion in liquidations, and traders are now watching the November 2026 expiration date for current suspension arrangements.
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