The ceasefire between the United States and Iran redirected investors toward risk assets, weakening gold’s geopolitical support near the $4,100 level. China plans to impose restrictions on paper gold trading, fueling speculation about a confidence shift toward physical gold while the country holds approximately 30,000 tonnes of the yellow metal. Bitcoin currently trades at its most oversold level relative to the Nasdaq, only 18% above its realized price of approximately $53,000, and the current cycle approaches 40 weeks since its all-time high. Macroeconomic events this week, including the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision on July 29, PCE inflation data, and Bank of Japan and Bank of England rate decisions, could determine whether investors favor cryptocurrencies or traditional safe-haven assets.
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