Bitcoin’s supply in profit reached approximately 57.5% on July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, its 2026 low. CryptoQuant warns that the market already experienced a failed recovery between late April and early June, when the long-term holder SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 days and supply in profit reached 67% before rolling back over. The 30-day SMA of long-term holder SOPR has remained below 1 for more than 50 days. Historical conditions for marking the end of the bear market are not met: long-term holder SOPR should stay above 1 for several consecutive weeks, and total supply in profit should exceed 64%.
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