Bitcoin reclaimed $65,000 on Monday as a pause in US-Iran strikes eased geopolitical pressure and Brent crude retreated 6.5% to around $90.45 per barrel. Fed funds futures now price roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike Wednesday, up from just 16% a week earlier, after last week’s energy shock. US inflation nonetheless slowed in June, with the consumer price index falling 0.4% month-over-month, its biggest monthly decline since April 2020, bringing annual inflation to 3.5%. Options traders have reduced near-term downside hedges, but longer-dated contracts still reflect elevated uncertainty, with markets pricing a roughly 77% probability of a rate increase by September.
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