Bitcoin has lost 50 % of its value since its last all-time high and has been in a bearish market for over 40 weeks, showing zero performance since March 2021 against the Nasdaq. The RSI of the Nasdaq/BTC ratio reached 72.6, its highest level ever recorded, indicating historic oversold conditions for BTC against the US tech sector. Bitcoin’s realized price stands around $53,000, approximately 18 % below the current price, and historical cycle patterns suggest BTC could still return to this level or temporarily drop below it before hitting bottom. If the pattern of previous cycles repeats, with a bottom reached before the 60th week following the peak, the current cycle, around its 40th week, would place a potential bottom before the end of November 2026.
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