In the second quarter, Bitcoin’s daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.12 from 0.58 in Q4 2025, while its correlation with gold and silver climbed to 0.57 and 0.63 respectively. This shift means Bitcoin now answers to the same macro forces as precious metals, particularly real yields, the dollar and Fed policy, rather than weakness in AI-linked stocks. Brent crude traded around $96 per barrel on July 24, well above the $74 forecast by the US Energy Information Administration for Q3, making oil the key risk factor. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded seven consecutive days of net inflows totaling nearly $1 billion before a $225 million outflow on July 23, signaling fragile demand stabilization.
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