The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects real GDP growth of 5.8% for Q3 2026, nearly four times the 1.5% pace recorded in Q2. This estimate, updated on August 6, represents a slight 0.1 percentage point downward revision from the previous reading. The Q3 forecast has fluctuated significantly within a single week, swinging from 5.0% on July 30 to 6.2% on August 3, before settling at 5.8%. The slight dip reflects a marginal softening in the personal consumption expenditures forecast, ticking down from 4.2% to 4.1%.
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