Bitcoin staged a spectacular return above $95,000 on January 14, 2026, even reaching $97,040 on Binance, its highest level since November 2025. This sudden surge triggered a wave of massive liquidations on short positions, fueling a rally that puts BTC back on track toward $100,000.
A Massive $300 Million Purge of Short Positions
The bullish movement took bearish traders who had positioned themselves against Bitcoin by surprise. According to market data, more than $290 million in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, out of a total of nearly $600 million in liquidations across all positions.
This purge represents a classic « short squeeze » where the rapid price increase forces short sellers to buy back their positions to limit their losses, further fueling the upward momentum. Max Gnatyshyn, Chief Operating Officer at Toobit, described this dynamic as « bullish volatility » supported by spot ETF demand.
Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, directly characterized this movement as « a violent short squeeze. » The violence of this liquidation reminds us that the crypto market remains extremely sensitive to excessive leverage.
The Massive Return of Institutional Flows
One of the major catalysts for this rebound lies in the spectacular turnaround of flows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs. After suffering record outflows of $4.57 billion between November and December 2025, ETFs recorded $753.73 million in net inflows on January 13, marking the strongest day of inflows since early October 2025.
This massive injection of institutional capital contrasts sharply with the volatility observed at the beginning of the year. The first two trading days of 2026 saw approximately $1.2 billion in net inflows, followed by a period of outflows reaching up to $681 million over a week. The strong return on January 13 signals renewed confidence from institutional investors.
BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC led the way, demonstrating that asset management giants maintain their conviction in Bitcoin despite recent volatility.
A Favorable Technical Configuration
On the technical front, Bitcoin has broken through several key levels that open the path toward more ambitious targets. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, emphasized that a daily close above $93,500 (the 2025 opening price) constitutes a major technical signal.
« This opens up good probabilities of a move toward $108,000 »
Charles Edwards, Capriole Investments
Several analysts identify a critical resistance zone between $95,000 and $97,000, where the 50-week exponential moving average sits around $97,650. A confirmed breakout of this zone could propel BTC toward the psychological level of $100,000.
Tom Lee, an analyst renowned for his optimistic forecasts, sees his scenario of a new all-time high in January gaining credibility. The recently completed « cup-and-handle » technical pattern suggests a target around $106,600, with confirmation needed above $100,200.
On-Chain Metrics Support the Rebound
On-chain data reveals encouraging fundamentals. Glassnode’s analysis shows that selling pressure has significantly eased in early 2026, with daily realized profits (7D-SMA) falling to $183.8 million in late December, compared to over $1 billion observed during Q4 2025.
« Whales » holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have slowed their distribution, while small holders (less than 1 BTC) have accelerated their accumulation since mid-November. This redistribution of coins from large holders to retail investors suggests a more solid holding base.
Bitcoin’s open interest experienced a significant reset, dropping 31% from its 2025 peak to stabilize around $10 billion. This deleveraging phase, although painful in the short term, has historically signaled important market bottoms and established a healthier foundation for a sustainable rally.
Rising Odds of Reaching $100,000
On Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January 2026 have risen to 30%, while the chances of surpassing $95,000 reach 68%. These prediction markets reflect growing, albeit measured, optimism.
QCP Capital analysts estimate that the current price already incorporates major macro risks, from geopolitical events in Venezuela and Iran to US tariff policy. « In the absence of new unknowns, any dip should be considered a buying opportunity, » their note indicates.
Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Australia, believes that holding above $95,000 opens the path toward $100,000, with a secondary target at the 200-day moving average located at $106,115.
Ambitious Forecasts for 2026
The outlook for 2026 as a whole remains predominantly bullish among analysts. The consensus places Bitcoin between $120,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2026, with macroeconomic factors such as Fed rate decisions playing a determining role.
- Standard Chartered: $200,000
- VanEck: $180,000
- Cathie Wood (ARK Invest): $250,000
Cathie Wood of ARK Invest maintains an optimistic forecast of $250,000, highlighting the $60 billion already invested in Bitcoin ETFs and anticipating significant additional flows from pension funds.
However, more cautious voices remain. Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence warned that Bitcoin would be more likely to drop to $50,000 than to exceed $100,000 in 2026, citing a possible completion of the four-year halving cycle.
Risks and Technical Vigilance
Despite the current euphoria, several signals call for caution. A trader known by the pseudonym Roman described the current action as « classically bearish » because the price is rising on decreasing volume. He potentially anticipates a drop toward $76,000, although he admits the possibility of a retest of the $100,000 zone.
CrypNuevo warned against strong resistance at the 50-week exponential moving average around $97,650, characterizing the current rise as a « liquidity run » before a potential pullback. Only a sustained move above $100,000 would invalidate this bearish scenario.
The Supertrend indicator on the daily chart displays a bearish signal, marking $98,643 as a key resistance. This technical divergence deserves monitoring in the coming days.
Conclusion: A Market at a Decisive Turning Point
Bitcoin’s rebound above $95,000, fueled by a $300 million short squeeze and the return of institutional flows, marks a potentially decisive turning point for the crypto market in 2026. On-chain metrics, leverage reduction, and position reset suggest a healthier market structure than at the end of 2025.
The coming week will be crucial: holding above $95,000 with a confirmed breakout toward $97,000-$100,000 could trigger a major rally toward technical targets at $106,000-$108,000. Conversely, rejection at these resistance levels could signal that the market remains in a correction phase.
For traders, caution remains advisable with adjusted stops, while the medium-term outlook remains constructive for those maintaining a long-term institutional view. As QCP Capital analysts emphasized, in the absence of new macro shocks, pullbacks should be considered accumulation opportunities rather than exit signals.
