The Shiller CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 stands between 40 and 42, a level only seen in 1929 and at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000. This historically elevated US equity valuation carries an increased risk of modest or even negative real returns over the next decade. Bitcoin’s behavior in this context remains ambiguous: the asset may trade as a risk-on instrument correlated with technology stocks or as a non-correlated digital store of value. Interest rate trajectories, institutional adoption, and global liquidity conditions will determine which scenario prevails. The CAPE ratio is not a forecast but rather a contextual factor to be considered alongside other indicators.
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