Galaxy Research slashed its odds for the CLARITY Act from 50% to just 10% in two months, citing a packed Senate calendar and unresolved disputes over stablecoin rules. The bill, formally H.R. 3633, had peaked at 75% after clearing the Senate Banking Committee on May 22, 2026, with a 15-9 vote, before gradually declining to 10% by mid-August. Two provisions remain particularly contentious: an ethics clause covering crypto assets that government officials can hold, and whether stablecoins should be permitted to offer yield to holders. If the CLARITY Act fails this session, it would need to be reintroduced in the next Congress, restarting a committee process that took nearly a year to complete.
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