Gulf allies are expressing frustration with President Donald Trump’s ability to conduct diplomacy aimed at securing peace with Iran amid ongoing tensions and intermittent negotiations following the military conflict that erupted earlier this year. The prediction market for an end to the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, has seen its probability drop to 18.5%, down from 24% just 24 hours ago and significantly lower than the 76% seen a week ago. However, the December 31, 2026 market remains relatively optimistic with a 78.2% likelihood, suggesting market participants view a longer timeline as more plausible for resolution. The shift in market pricing may reflect Gulf allies’ reduced confidence in the U.S. administration’s diplomatic effectiveness.
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