Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50 % from its October record of roughly $126,080 to trade recently around $60,000. According to VanEck, this decline tracks Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, a recurring feature of its market structure rather than a break from it. The firm’s GEO framework shows two of three signals in neutral territory, pointing to early signs of a bottom forming. CryptoQuant observes that long-term holders are sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the market average, a pattern seen at every prior major cycle bottom, but cautions that past cycles fell to much deeper negative extremes before reaching true lows.
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