Kalshi contracts on US government shutdown odds in 2026 dropped from 64% in early September to approximately 17% by mid-October, as the Senate passed a stopgap funding bill 90-6. This decline reflects the passage of a continuing resolution funding federal agencies through December 11, though the House only approved a version extending to December 4, creating a potential disagreement between chambers. For crypto desks, the key question remains whether this reduction in imminent shutdown odds truly removes downward macroeconomic pressures on Bitcoin or simply postpones the budget conflict to December. Traders monitor these contracts alongside other indicators such as Treasury bill yield spreads and broader risk appetite.
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