Markets Brace for July CPI Report With Core Inflation in Focus

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish July Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday. Monthly CPI is forecast to rise by 0.1% after a 0.4% decline in June, while the annual reading is expected to retreat to 3.4% from 3.5% the previous month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to increase by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. Analysts at TD Securities expect a modest rebound after June’s temporary weakness, with oil prices fluctuating significantly, dropping 20% in June before surging 22% in July. Markets are currently pricing in about a 52% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in September.

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