Bitcoin traders now prioritize macroeconomic indicators such as CPI, Federal Reserve decisions, and global liquidity over halving cycles and on-chain metrics. Approximately 17.9% of circulating Bitcoin is held by institutional entities, including publicly traded companies, ETF funds, and sovereigns. Grayscale’s December 2025 projections anticipate structural demand for Bitcoin amid rising public debt and persistent inflation risks. The Fed has paused quantitative tightening with roughly $40 billion in monthly Treasury bill purchases, improving liquidity conditions across risk assets. Bitcoin ETF flows now serve as the central mechanism linking the market to traditional capital allocation decisions.
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