Asian stocks edged higher Monday and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September dropped sharply from 67% to 44%, giving risk assets room to extend last week’s record run. The S&P 500 notched a fresh all-time high, tracking Wall Street’s Friday close. Wednesday’s July consumer price index (CPI) report will be the next key checkpoint, with analysts forecasting a 0.1% rise in headline inflation and 0.2% for core CPI. Oil prices represent a major inflation wildcard, with Brent crude reaching $84.32 per barrel Monday amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. S&P 500 earnings are up 30% year-on-year, according to Bank of America data, with AI stocks posting median growth of 28% versus 12% for the rest of the index.
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