US intelligence has warned that Russia might launch a limited attack on a NATO ally between fall 2025 and 2029, aiming to fragment the Atlantic alliance. This attack could take the form of a cyberattack, the use of deniable forces, or a small land incursion to test NATO’s response under Article 5 without escalating into full-scale war. Russia’s capacity for such actions will depend on the evolution of its military situation in Ukraine. Markets are currently pricing a 23.5% probability of a NATO-Russia military clash by December 31, 2026.
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