Citi has raised its Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast from $75 to $80 per barrel, a $5 upward revision driven by a US-Iran conflict that has lasted five months. Repeated attempts at a deal have failed to restore normal oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global seaborne crude and LNG exports pass daily. During peak tensions, the bank’s base-case estimate had climbed as high as $110 per barrel. Higher oil prices feed directly into inflation expectations, keeping the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in a cautious posture.
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