Iran and Oman are negotiating a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil transport, with Gulf states endorsing locally driven solutions. Former U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly attempting to claim credit for the deal despite not being involved in the negotiations. Market participants view these developments as a sign of declining U.S. influence, with the odds of a U.S.-Iran agreement by August 15 falling from 64% to 42.5%. This shift reflects growing momentum behind a regional solution and a perceived reduction in American leverage over the strait’s management.
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