Ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted by 77% in a single day, with only Iran-approved routes now being utilized. This sharp decline reflects ongoing US-Iran tensions over this strategic chokepoint crucial for global oil and gas shipments. While traffic at the Bab el-Mandeb strait has remained steady, markets are pricing in a reduced likelihood of normalization by September 30, with YES odds dropping to 16.5%. Key actors, including Iran’s leadership and US officials, will play pivotal roles in shaping the outcome of this crisis in the coming weeks.
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