At least 67 ships have been attacked or boarded and 17 seafarers have been killed since the onset of the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, according to the Wall Street Journal. Shipping routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters, have been significantly disrupted. The prediction market prices a 14% probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed by September 30, down from 16% previously, with a 5.5% probability of closure by August 31. This escalation in maritime threats poses a risk to the global energy supply chain and raises concerns about prolonged instability in the region.
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