Oil prices have fallen roughly 39% from their March peak, with Brent crude dropping from nearly $118 per barrel to approximately $72 in early July. This decline provided relief for US bond markets, as the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back after reaching 4.6% during the worst of the conflict. The S&P 500 rose 17.3% between late March and late July, despite a fragile ceasefire that collapsed twice. Following former President Trump’s declaration ending the ceasefire on July 8, Brent rebounded to around $82, with markets pricing the conflict as contained but not resolved.
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