Starting January 1, 2027, American defense contractors and manufacturers must stop buying critical minerals from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. China controls over 80 percent of global rare earth refining capacity, and Pentagon-backed domestic mining projects aren’t expected to reach meaningful output until 2027 to 2030. When China halted rare earth exports to the US earlier in 2025, the Trump administration reached a deal with Beijing to resume those shipments, illustrating the persistent dependence of the American industrial base. If the administration grants waivers or pushes the 2027 deadline, it would stabilize supply chains in the short term but could slow investment in domestic production capacity.
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