Optimism surrounding a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran has increased market risk appetite, despite hostilities beginning in February 2026 and intermittent diplomatic exchanges between the two nations. Markets reflect cautious optimism, with a 34.5% probability that Iranian reconstruction funding will be included in a deal, up from 29% twenty-four hours earlier. The likelihood of a final nuclear deal by September 30, 2026 stands at 16%, compared to 12% a week ago, while the probability of a deal before August 13, 2026 remains low at 1.8%. Observers are closely monitoring statements from U.S. and Iranian negotiators as well as developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
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