Since 2022, Bitcoin has experienced average drawdowns of 19.38% each August. If this pattern repeats, BTC could fall to $51,900 or lower. Realized losses hit a record high of $1.37 billion in February 2026, 19% above the previous June 2022 peak. Despite this, long-term holders continue accumulating at a record pace, with 1.29 million BTC over 30 days on May 24, 2026, surpassing the August 2017 record. Analysts say it is too early to conclude that the worst of the capitulation is behind us.
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