The Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, marking Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second meeting in that role. Unlike last month’s unanimous vote, at least two dissents in favor of tighter policy are expected. Rising oil prices following the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, combined with inflation exceeding the 2% target for five years, are fueling inflation concerns. Markets now price in a 34.2% chance of a quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday, up from 12.8% a week ago. Several Fed governors, including Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack, have signaled impatience with inflation seen as too high for too long, while Bank of America maintains its forecast for three quarter-point rate cuts this year.
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