Rising oil prices near $100 per barrel have reversed market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to rate hikes. US 2-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.37% on July 23, their highest since early 2025, while the 10-year benchmark reached approximately 4.7%. Escalating tensions linked to the Iran conflict have pushed crude prices toward the $90 to $97 range, raising concerns about supply-side inflation. Bitcoin and other risk assets face mounting pressure as higher interest rates make traditional bonds more attractive. If oil continues climbing toward $100, Treasury yields and rate hike probabilities are expected to rise further.
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