Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted its trade with China, according to newly released Chinese customs data. Oil shipments have dropped from 1.74 million barrels per day in April to approximately 550,000 in early July. China’s trade with other Persian Gulf nations remains less affected, with Beijing continuing commerce in the region. The market assigns only a 12.5% probability of normalization by August 31, reflecting persistent geopolitical tensions in the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict.
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