U.S. margin debt reached a record $1.5 trillion in June 2024, marking a 49% year-on-year increase and a 136% rise since Q4 2023. This leverage level relative to U.S. nominal GDP surpasses historical peaks seen during the Dot-Com bubble and the 2021 market boom. The surge reflects heightened risk-taking, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Market participants are closely watching the Fed’s rate decisions through September and statements from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and other governors, as these could shape margin debt trends and broader financial stability.
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