Polymarket traders estimate a 26% probability that the US government will restrict public access to at least one major Chinese AI model before December 31, 2026. Usage of Chinese models on platforms like OpenRouter has surged from roughly 2% to 30% by mid-2026, driven by cost advantages over OpenAI and Anthropic alternatives. DeepSeek and other Chinese models are already banned from government devices by the Commerce Department and several US states. A full ban would force businesses to migrate their AI workflows and could temporarily reduce competitive pressure on US companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Polymarket watchers note that any move above 40% would suggest insiders are pricing in concrete policy action.
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