Major U.S. stock indexes tumbled on Thursday as investors began pricing in the consequences of a renewed and prolonged conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. has conducted strikes against Iran for 12 consecutive nights, pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield beyond 4.7%, its highest level since January 2025. WTI crude futures jumped 6% to $92 per barrel, up more than 28% from lows below $70 hit earlier this month. The odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week have risen to nearly 38%, compared with just 12% a week ago, while September hike odds now exceed 80%. The breaking point for serious economic effects, according to analysts, would be sustained oil prices above $120 per barrel.
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