The United States and Ukraine are actively working to resume peace talks with Russia, aiming for a partial ceasefire in the ongoing conflict. This diplomatic push comes as Moscow signals readiness to return to the negotiating table while Ukraine advocates for a ceasefire along current front lines. Market pricing currently reflects a 36.5% probability of a ceasefire agreement being reached by the end of 2026. Key officials to watch include U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose statements could influence market perceptions regarding the likelihood of a deal.
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