Bitcoin Targets $110,000: Arthur Hayes Predicts Record Highs as Whale Exploits Hyperliquid for $6.2 Million
The crypto market splits between macroeconomic optimism and DeFi scandals. Could Bitcoin really reach $110,000 before retesting $76,500? Meanwhile, an anonymous whale pocketed a spectacular $6.2 million profit on Hyperliquid by exploiting the platform’s liquidation parameters.
Is Bitcoin Heading to $110,000? Arthur Hayes Thinks So
Bitcoin (BTC) could well hit a new all-time high of $110,000 before any significant retracement toward $76,500. This is the bold prediction from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, in a post published March 24 on X (formerly Twitter).
« I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k. Why? The Fed is going from QT to QE on treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter because of ‘transitory inflation.’ JAYPOW told me so. »
For Hayes, what is particularly interesting is that the US Federal Reserve appears to be pivoting toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Quantitative Easing (QE), which involves the Fed buying bonds and injecting liquidity into the economy, contrasts with the Quantitative Tightening (QT) that has been in place for several years. This transition could create an environment particularly favorable for risk assets, with Bitcoin leading the way.
« What I mean is that it’s more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time and we ain’t looking back until $250k, » he added in a follow-up post.
The Fed’s Pivot: From QT to QE
To understand this prediction, we need to examine the monetary mechanics at play. Quantitative Tightening is the process by which the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling bonds or letting them mature without reinvesting proceeds. This removes money from the economy and tends to push interest rates higher. Conversely, Quantitative Easing works in the opposite direction: the Fed buys bonds and injects liquidity to support the economy.
According to Hayes, this change in direction from the Federal Reserve could be the catalyst that propels Bitcoin to new highs. Bitcoin’s price history shows a marked negative correlation with restrictive monetary policies. The more available liquidity in the financial system, the more risk assets like BTC tend to perform.
Not all analysts share this short-term optimism, however. Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of IntoTheCryptoVerse, provided a nuanced perspective: « QT is not ‘basically over’ on April 1st. They still have $35B/mo coming off from mortgage-backed securities. They just slowed QT from $60B/mo to $40B/mo. »
This clarification reminds us that while the Fed has indeed slowed its quantitative tightening operations, it hasn’t yet switched to outright expansionist policy. The situation therefore warrants close monitoring without succumbing to excessive optimism.
Favorable Macroeconomic Context
Hayes isn’t the only one seeing clear skies for Bitcoin. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has lost 8.99% since January 1, 2026, standing at 98.77 at time of publication. Bitcoin and the DXY are inversely correlated: when the dollar weakens, BTC becomes more attractive not just as a speculative investment, but also as a monetary alternative.
This configuration echoes previous cycles. Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and respected crypto analyst, stated in a recent video that the current cycle is « spookily similar to 2017. » According to him, Bitcoin posted a steady uptrend throughout 2017 before skyrocketing in December, ending the year with approximately 1,255% increase from its price on January 1.
Pal also highlighted that the business cycle score he uses to track where the global economy is in the broader cycle « remains below 50, » suggesting the bullish cycle could extend beyond initial expectations.
« With the dollar breaking down even today, it’s starting to suggest this may go into Q2 2026, » he stated. This analysis corroborates Hayes’s predictions and reinforces the hypothesis of an extended bull market.
The Middle East as a Growth Engine
Pal also emphasized an often underestimated factor by Western observers: the massive interest from the Middle East in cryptocurrencies and blockchain.
« The mandate across the entire region, from Saudi Arabia to Abu Dhabi to Dubai to Bahrain to Qatar, is AI and blockchain, » Pal said during a recent visit to the region, adding that most sovereign funds in the area have a bullish outlook on cryptocurrencies.
This dynamic is particularly significant because it goes beyond simply holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset. According to Pal, these nations are seeking to build their entire government infrastructure on blockchain, representing a paradigm shift compared to the more conservative approach of Western countries.
Bitcoin Posts Two Consecutive Weeks of Gains
On the technical side, Bitcoin has risen for two consecutive weeks, achieving a bullish weekly close just above $86,000 on March 23, according to TradingView data. This performance, characterized by a bullish weekly close above $86,000, could chart the path toward the long-awaited record.
The technical levels to watch are now clear for technical analysts. The psychological resistance of $100,000 has long been cited as a major target, but Hayes suggests $110,000 could be reached even before a return to lower levels. Support at $76,500 remains a key level to monitor in case of a reversal.
Hyperliquid Exploit: Whale Pockets $6.2 Million
While the institutional segment thinks big, the decentralized world isn’t lacking in excitement — or controversy. An anonymous whale allegedly manipulated the price of the Jelly my Jelly (JELLY) memecoin on decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, generating profits exceeding $6 million on a short position.
According to a post-mortem report published by blockchain intelligence firm Arkham, the whale opened three large trading positions within five minutes: two long positions worth $2.15 million and $1.9 million, and a $4.1 million short position that effectively offset the long positions.
How the Exploit Worked
What happened on Hyperliquid perfectly illustrates the technical subtleties of decentralized trading protocols. The whale in question deliberately exploited the platform’s liquidation parameters, benefiting from the fact that particularly large positions are not liquidated immediately due to their size.
When JELLY’s price rose by 400%, the $4 million short position wasn’t immediately liquidated. Instead, it was absorbed by the Hyperliquidity Provider Vault (HLP), a mechanism specifically designed to handle large positions and avoid liquidation cascades that could destabilize the protocol.
This approach allowed the whale to transform what should have been a massive loss into substantial profit. Instead of having the short position automatically liquidated when the price rose, the HLP absorbed the position, allowing the trader to realize a profit of over $6 million.
The Aftermath
According to blockchain investigator ZachXBT, whose analyses are widely respected in the crypto community, the entity in question likely still holds nearly $2 million in JELLY tokens, representing approximately 10% of the token’s total supply on Solana.
« Five addresses linked to the entity who manipulated JELLY on Hyperliquid still hold ~10% of the JELLY supply on Solana ($1.9M+). All JELLY was purchased since March 22, 2025, » ZachXBT wrote in a March 26 Telegram post.
This incident raises important questions about the security and governance of DeFi protocols. If liquidation parameters can be circumvented by actors with sufficient capital and technical sophistication, the very concept of automatic liquidation loses relevance.
Persistent DeFi Risks
This exploit reminds us that the decentralized finance ecosystem remains exposed to significant risks. Liquidation parameters, protocol architectures, and price mechanisms on DEXs can all be exploited by sophisticated actors.
For regular investors, this underscores the importance of understanding risks before engaging with DeFi protocols. The promise of high yields often comes with equally high risks, and the line between legitimate innovation and manipulation can be thin.
Strategy Raises STRC Dividend to 11.50%
In other news, Strategy — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and now officially renamed Strategy — continues to make waves in the crypto ecosystem.
Company chairman Michael Saylor announced a raise in the dividend on its STRC preferred stock (known as « Stretch ») to 11.50% for March 2026, up from 11.25% previously. This 25 basis point increase demonstrates the company’s willingness to attract more investors to these innovative financial instruments.
STRC is a perpetual stock, meaning the company is not obligated to buy back the shares at any specified date. It features a variable yield that changes monthly, adjusted based on market conditions. The dividend is paid monthly, with the next payout scheduled for March 31 to shareholders of record.
« STRC’s dividend rate is adjusted monthly to encourage trading around STRC’s $100 par value and to help strip away price volatility, » according to an update on the company’s website.
An Innovative Financing Strategy
In February, Strategy CEO Phong Le had outlined the company’s new financing strategy for its Bitcoin purchases. Instead of issuing common stock, the company now prefers to issue preferred shares.
« Last year, Stretch and our perpetual preferreds raised $7 billion. That’s 33% of the entire preferred market, » he said during an analyst conference call.
This approach offers several advantages. It allows raising funds without further diluting common shareholders, while offering investors an instrument with an attractive yield. For STRC holders, the 11.50% yield is particularly competitive in the current interest rate environment.
« As we go throughout the course of this year, we expect Structure to be a big product for us, » Phong Le added, suggesting this trend toward preferred share issuance would continue.
Massive Losses But Continuous Accumulation
Strategy reported a net loss of $12.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, causing the company’s share price to drop 13% to approximately $107 per share. This massive loss reflects the significant decline in the value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings, whose price has substantially dropped from levels reached in previous quarters.
The company’s stock briefly hit a high of $543 per share during intraday trading in November 2024, before falling back below $300 in February 2025. This nearly 75% decline from November’s peak illustrates the volatility faced by investors in vehicles exposed to Bitcoin.
Despite these difficulties, the company continues its Bitcoin accumulation with remarkable discipline. Its last purchase was during the week of February 16, when it acquired 592 BTC worth over $39.8 million at current market prices, bringing its total holdings to 717,722 BTC — its 100th Bitcoin purchase since beginning its accumulation strategy.
BTC’s current price trades well below Strategy’s average purchase cost of $76,020 per Bitcoin, which partly explains the pressure on the share price and significant unrealized losses on the company’s books.
Fidelity Launches Into Stablecoins
Alongside these developments, Fidelity Investments — one of the world’s largest asset managers with $5.8 trillion in assets under management — is preparing to launch its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin.
According to a source close to the Financial Times, Fidelity Digital Assets is developing this stablecoin as part of a broader push into cryptocurrency-based services. This move marks a significant step in institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies by traditional financial actors.
The company has also filed for an OnChain share class backed by its US dollar money market fund, Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund (FYHXX), an $80 million fund consisting almost entirely of US Treasury bills. This innovation could transform how institutional investors interact with traditional money markets.
This launch comes in a context of growing regulatory clarity in the United States, where the Trump administration has signaled that crypto policy would be a national priority. The prospect of clear stablecoin regulation is one of the factors pushing large financial institutions to accelerate their projects in this area.
Conclusion
The crypto market appears to be going through a particularly eventful period. Between bullish predictions from iconic figures like Arthur Hayes and Raoul Pal, scandals related to the exploitation of DeFi protocols like Hyperliquid, and the entry of institutional giants like Fidelity into the stablecoin ecosystem, developments are coming at a rapid pace.
For investors, this period perfectly illustrates the duality of the crypto market: on one hand, opportunities offered by a favorable macroeconomic environment and growing institutional adoption; on the other, systemic risks inherent in an ecosystem still maturing and often opaque on the regulatory level.
Whether you’re optimistic about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects like Hayes, or cautious like Benjamin Cowen who reminds us that QT isn’t totally over, one thing is certain: the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve at a rapid pace, and 2026 promises to be a decisive year.
Stay tuned.
Sources: Cointelegraph, Arkham, ZachXBT, Real Vision, Strategy, Financial Times
